Policy Roundtables
The Foundation organizes, hosts, and co-hosts ad hoc roundtables to provide opportunities for policy and Asia experts, government officials, business leaders, journalists, and scholars to share information and exchange views on current issues of importance to U.S.-Asia relations.
Program Update
Joint Report with KEI: “Trilateralism Through Transition”
While the 2023 Camp David Summit was a success for the partnership between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, the trilateral faces new challenges as new administrations have come to power in all three capitals. To assess the stakes, the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) and The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation convened a public panel with experts Zack Cooper (CSIS), Shihoko Goto (FPRI), and Eun A Jo (William & Mary).
Drawing on insights from these experts, 15 competitively selected emerging leaders joined a private roundtable to develop blue-sky ideas for the future of trilateral cooperation.
What does trilateralism look like moving forward? If it is to remain more than a symbol, what are the opportunities for impact, and where are the risks of backsliding most acute?
This report offers timely perspectives for the policy community on how the three partners can sustain momentum amidst uncertainty.
U.S.-Japan Alliance in an Age of Great Power Competition
On April 12th, 2024, the Mansfield Foundation hosted a roundtable discussion featuring Dr. Takuya Matsuda (University of Tokyo) on the role of alliances, with a focus on the U.S.-Japan alliance in an age of great power competition. This was followed by remarks from discussant Dr. James Brady (Teneo), and a Q&A with attendees.
Dr. Matsuda began the discussion by highlighting three key points: 1) alliances as a means to project power, 2) the development of regional approach contingency planning and 3) the challenges that lie ahead. For his first point, Dr. Matsuda explained that historically, Japan had been passive with regards to its foreign policy and did not invest much in security. However, Dr. Matsuda noted that in order to maintain and enhance power, Japan has been investing more in security and defense as well as multilateral and operational joint alliances. For his second point, Dr. Matsuda noted the significance of the U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral relationship. Although many U.S. allies have the same strategic goals, they have different priorities when it comes to defense. Thus, trilateral relationships, including the U.S.-Japan-ROK partnership, is a step toward developing regional approach contingency plans. Dr. Matsuda concluded by explaining there are still many challenges for the U.S.-Japan alliance, including addressing contested areas, vulnerabilities, sustainability, and dispersing forces.
This was followed by a short discussion between Dr. Matsuda and Dr. Brady, where they discussed Japan’s response to the current security challenges compared to the Gulf War. Dr. Matsuda noted that during the Gulf War, Japan was not expected to take part, and thus its aid focused on burden sharing. However with the changing security environment and China’s modernization, Japan realized it needed to alter its approach to security and defense. When asked how Japan’s strategic environment could look thirty years from now, Dr. Matsuda noted Japan needs to invest in defense and security wisely as it currently lacks the proper foundation.
The event concluded with a Q&A with the audience. This portion covered a variety of topics, such as institutionalization of Japan-ROK cooperation, the future difficulties that the two countries may face in the area of defense, shifts in Japanese public opinion, the possibility of revising Article 9 of the Japanese constitution, and the possibility of a U.S.-Japan integrated command center.
Korean Election Results Roundtable
On April 11th, 2024, the Mansfield Foundation hosted Dr. Jaehan Park (Johns Hopkins SAIS) and Seoho Lee (McLarty Associates) for a roundtable discussion on the outcome of the April 10th South Korean National Assembly Elections, followed by a Q&A with attendees.
Dr. Park began with a comparison of the 2016 election polling versus the 2024 election polling and used the map to discuss President Yoon’s low approval ratings and the slow fall from dominance that the center-right has had over Korean politics historically. The opposition Democratic Party again defeated President Yoon’s People Power Party in this election, and Dr. Park argued that ideological shifts and generational changes beginning in the 2010s have contributed to the rise of politicians with new ideologies, with 2016 marking the most significant shift away from conservative parties. In response to a question posed by moderator Dr. Sayuri Romei about how the People Power Party’s defeat could impact U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral cooperation and bilateral relations between the ROK and Japan, Mr. Lee underscored the point that while President Yoon no longer has the majority in the National Assembly, he remains in charge of executive power. The electoral results mostly indicates a further deadlock on domestic issues while foreign policy remains under presidential authority. However, even with foreign affairs not being under the purview of the Assembly, President Yoon could face impeachment should eight members of his own party stand with the opposition.
In the Q&A portion of the roundtable, a wide array of topics were covered, such as inter-Korean relations, increases in radicalization and polarization of voters, Korean energy policy, rise of third parties, and the influence of U.S.-China strategic competition on South Korea.
Reacting to Russia’s War Against Ukraine
On April 9th, 2024, the Mansfield Foundation hosted a discussion featuring Professor Matteo Dian of the University of Bologna, Italy on the reactions to the war in Ukraine from the perspective of U.S. allies in Europe and East Asia. This was followed by a short discussion with Dr. Naoko Aoki of the RAND corporation, and a Q&A with attendees.
Professor Dian began by explaining the reactions to the war in Ukraine were based on several determinants; threat perception, strategic interactions with China and Russia, the country’s support of the Liberal International Order, the level of economic independence from Russia and their general economic fragility. Professor Dian then discussed the responses from Europe, Japan and South Korea. He noted that East European and Scandinavia countries have provided the most support in terms of shared GDP. He also explained that Japan has provided limited military support including anti-drone technology, military gear, and civilian drones as well as economic, and humanitarian support, while South Korea has provided economic and logistical support. Professor Dian continued by discussing the “Neutral Zone”, consisting of South and South-East Asia, Sub-Sahara Africa, and Latin America. He noted that unlike European and East Asian countries, the Neutral Zone was less responsive to the War, due to factors including China’s influence and the Soviet legacy and their dependency on Russia for weapons and raw minerals. Professor Dian concluded by listing four key developments: the steps Japan has taken, cooperation between various countries and NATO, the creation of global polarization and the development of the Neutral Zone.
The roundtable was followed by a short discussion between Professor Dian and Dr. Naoko Aoki and a Q&A with the audience. The speakers answered questions about global polarization, Russian nuclear rhetoric, and implications of defense budget changes in Europe.
Japan’s Energy Decision-making Process Post-Fukushima
On March 27, 2024, the Mansfield Foundation hosted a talk by Dr. Pinar Temocin of the University of Tokyo on her upcoming book on Japan’s energy decision-making process post-Fukushima. The book talk was followed by a short discussion with Dr. Jennifer Sklarew of George Mason University, and a Q&A with attendees.
Energy service companies (ESCOs) have been active in the nuclear debate following the Fukushima accident in 2011; however, their current role is unclear. Through her research, Dr. Temocin sought to answer the question of which channels and resources ESCOs use to create socio-political openings and to engage the government and government institutions regarding environmental concerns.
Dr. Temocin explained that post-Fukushima, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decided to focus further on nuclear energy, restarting nuclear power plants that had been immediately shut down in 2011. This created a low sense of trust between the public and the LDP, as well as the nuclear industry, and communities began to work with environmental organizations to shift from nuclear energy to renewable alternatives. Japan has since adopted the Green Growth Strategy for 2050, which aims for a carbon neutral society by 2025.
With these developments, ESCOs face a variety of challenges; Dr. Temocin noted that the largest of these were Japan’s low energy self-efficiency ratio resulting in its current dependency on imported resources, the cost for safety upgrades in aging reactors and managing the current ones, restoring public trust, and gaining credibility in policy processes. Activism-oriented international organizations also face both internal (e.g., insufficient organizational capabilities with limited material resources) and external (e.g., governmental approaches) constraints. To address these needs, Dr. Temocin proposed focusing on citizen-oriented energy projects, as well as a more collaborative energy governance. Dr. Temocin concluded that the Japanese government should focus on maintaining alliances with environmental organizations and engage with grassroots environmental advocacy using a bottom-up approach.
Dr. Temocin and Dr. Sklarew then discussed how ESCOs are currently engaging with both public and politicians and how they keep the public informed regarding renewable energies. The event concluded with the a question and answer session, during which both speakers discussed the Japanese public’s opinions on the energy discussions, Japan’s use of nuclear energy in the future, and the potential transition to renewable energy.