Yomiuri Shimbun February 2007 Opinion Poll

Dates Conducted

February 17 and 18, 2007

Methodology

Yomiuri conducted the poll in individual interviews on February 17and 18 using a stratified two-stage random sample of 3,000 voters in 250 different locations. 1,739 people, or 58.0% of those selected, responded.

Key Issues

•  Leadership of Prime Minister Abe
• Assessment of the third session of the fifth round of six-party talks on North Korea held in mid-February
•  Nationwide local elections that are scheduled in April

Background

This poll was conducted shortly after the six-party talks reached an agreement requiring North Korea to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear reactor in exchange for shipments of heavy fuel oil. No progress was made on the issue of Japanese abductees.Nationwide local elections are expected in April, so local governance has been a key domestic focus.

Disclaimer

The Mansfield Foundation is responsible for the translation of this Yomiuri poll, subject to the Mansfield Foundation Terms of Use.

 

Survey

Q1. Do you support or not support the Abe Cabinet?

Support	45.3% (48.4)
Do not support	42.7% (38.9)
Other	3.0% (4.4)
Do not know; No answer	9.0% (8.3)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in January 2007.

 

SQ1. [Those who answered “support” to Q1 only]

Please select up to two reasons from the list below of why you support the Abe Cabinet:

Positively evaluate its political stance	31.3% (27.4)
Feel that it is stable	10.2% (10.2)
Can trust the Prime Minister	25.3% (25.0)
Have a fresh image of the Prime Minister	39.8% (48.8)
Can support its economic policies	5.5% (3.1)
Can support its foreign policy	17.8% (18.2)
The coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito Party	10.4% (8.9)
It is better than previous cabinets	8.3% (8.0)
Other; Do not know; No answer	5.1% (5.0)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in January, 2007.

 

SQ2. [Those who answered “do not support” to Q1 only]
Please select up to two reasons from the list below of why you do not support the Abe Cabinet:

Cannot positively evaluate its political stance	38.6% (40.3)
Do not feel that the cabinet is stable	33.0% (30.0)
Cannot trust the Prime Minister	21.7% (24.4)
The Prime Minister’s political experience is lacking	17.4% (19.8)
Cannot support the administration’s economic policies	23.4% (23.1)
Cannot support the administration’s foreign policy	11.0% (10.4)
The coalition between the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito Party	10.6% (11.4)
The current cabinet is worse than the previous ones	8.2% (8.4)
Other; Do not know; No answer	4.2% (4.9)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in January, 2007.

 

Q2. From the list below, please select all applicable issues you would like the Abe Cabinet to prioritize and address.

Economic conditions/job security	52.0% (53.7)
Financial reconstruction	21.1% (20.7)
Tax reform and the issue of the consumption tax	28.5% (32.0)
Social security reform, including pension and healthcare	61.7% (63.0)
Support for child care and countermeasures for declining birthrates	34.8% (28.9)
Education reform	23.3% (25.3)
Administrative reform such as cutting back the number of government employees	18.5% (20.3)
Problems of income disparities	27.3% (26.2)
Yasukuni Shrine issue	3.6% (6.1)
Diplomacy toward Asia, includingChinaandSouth Korea	13.6% (14.6)
Issues withNorth Korea	32.8% (31.3)
National defense and security	9.7% (11.5)
Constitutional reform	6.2% (7.0)
Disaster prevention and crisis management	7.2% (10.6)
Measurement of crime prevention and securing peace and order	18.1% (21.7)
Environmental protection	17.9% (16.6)
Food safety	14.5% (17.6)
Other; Nothing special; Do not know; No answer	2.4% (2.8)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in Januar, 2007.

 

Q3. Which political party do you support right now? Please select one:

Liberal Democratic Party	34.2% (39.3)
Democratic Party ofJapan	12.0% (12.5)
New Komeito Party	3.9% (2.5)
JapanCommunist Party	1.4% (2.1)
Social Democratic Party ofJapan	1.0% (1.3)
The People’s New Party	0.3% (0.2)
The New PartyNippon	0.1% (0.1)
Others	—(0.1)
Do not support any party	46.8% (41.5)
Do not know; No answer	0.5% (0.6)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in Januar, 2007.

 

Q4. Regarding your impressions of Prime Minister Abe, please answer the following 3 questions:

S1. Do you think Prime Minister Abe has demonstrated leadership in managing the administration, or not?

Think so	18.1%
Do not think so	57.4%
Can say neither	22.9%
Do not know; No answer	1.6%

 

S2. Do you think Prime Minister Abe has been actively tackling reforms, or not?

Think so	34.3%
Do not think so	38.2%
Can say neither	26.3%
Do not know; No answer	1.2%

 

S3. Do you think that Prime Minister Abe properly handled a series of Cabinet members’ scandals and inappropriate remarks?

Think so	18.7%
Do not think so	55.8%
Can say neither	24.0%
Do not know; No answer	1.4%

 

Q5. The six-party talks were held recently discussing North Korea’s nuclear program. It was agreed that within 60 days North Korea is to shut down a nuclear reactor and to accept international nuclear monitoring in exchange for receiving the equivalent of 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil. Additionally, the equivalent of 950,000 tons of heavy fuel oil will be provided if North Korea permanently disables all of its nuclear reactors. Do you expect that, under the current agreement, North Korea’s nuclear problem can be resolved?

Can expect it so	4.1%
If anything, can expect it so	14.0%
If anything, cannot expect it so	27.3%
Cannot expect it so	51.5%
Do not know; No answer	3.1%

 

Q6.
S1. The policy of the Japanese government is that it will provide neither economic nor energy assistance to North Korea as long as there is no progress on the issue of Japanese abductees. Do you support this policy, or not?

Support	56.8%
If anything, support	24.0%
If anything, do not support	9.1%
Do not support	7.3%
Do not know; No answer	2.8%

 

S2. At the six-party talks, it was also agreed that a working group, which is to discuss the normalization of DPRK-Japan relations, will be established within 30 days. With the establishment of this working group do you expect that the issue of Japanese abductees will move toward a resolution.

Can expect it so	7.1%
If anything, can expect it so	16.8%
If anything, cannot expect it so	31.6%
Can not expect it so	39.8%
Do not know; No answer	4.7%

 

Q7. Do you support the results of the six-party talks as a whole, or not?

Support	13.5%
If anything, support	32.7%
If anything, do not support	26.7%
Do not support	20.1%
Do not know; No answer	7.0%

 

Q8. A number of gubernatorial, mayoral, and local assembly elections are scheduled nationwide in this April. Are you interested in these local elections, or not?

Very much interested	29.3% (20.4%)
Somewhat interested	39.2% (39.8%)
Not interested very much	23.7% (30.0%)
Not interested at all	7.4% (9.2%)
Do not know; No answer	0.5% (0.5%)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in February 2003.

 

Q9. Are you planning to vote this time, or not? Please select one from the list below:

Definitely will vote	55.4% (55.0)
Will try to go vote	33.3% (31.8)
Probably will not vote	7.3% (7.4)
Will not vote; will abstain from voting	2.3% (1.8)
No election in the area where I reside	0.2% (2.5)
Do not know; No answer	1.5% (1.4)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in February 2003.

 

Q10. Which agendas would you like candidates to discuss during the election campaign? Please select as many as you like from the list below.

Financial reconstruction in the local governments	35.5%
Downsizing the local administration	18.3%
Cutting back the number of local government employees	25.1%
Promotion of decentralization	7.5%
Promotion of information disclosure	11.6%
Reform of the local assembly	10.5%
Reforms on the bidding system for public works	18.2%
Cessation of the collusive relations among politics, government, and private sector	18.6%
Revitalization of the local economy such as employment and economic conditions	41.7%
Facilitation of business sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fisheries	7.8%
Improvement of transportation networks	7.8%
Social welfare, medical care, and countermeasures for an aging society	53.6%
Countermeasures for declining birthrates and support for child care	34.5%
Education and appropriate guidance for youth	26.7%
Preventing crimes and securing peace and order	21.3%
Preparation for earthquakes and disasters	12.8%
Measurements for trash disposal and environmental protection	18.4%
Other; nothing special; Do not know; No answer	5.1%

 

Q11. What characteristics in a candidate are most important to you when you decide who to vote for in the gubernatorial, mayoral, and municipal elections? Please select as many as you like from the list below.

Personality of the candidate	50.1%
Career and achievements of the candidate	22.9%
Policies and pledges by the candidate	51.9%
Whether or not the candidate has great possibilities in politics	19.0%
The candidate’s affiliated political party and supporting political party	14.3%
Policies and pledges by the candidate’s affiliated political party and supporting political party	16.8%
Request by an acquaintance or the job-related matters in the region	9.7%
Other	0.4%
Nothing special	6.7%
Do not know; No answer	0.8%

 

Q12. Do you think it better for a candidate to have an endorsement or support from a political party at the time of election, or do you think it is better for a candidate to not have any endorsement or support from a political party?

it is better if the candidate has an endorsement or support from a political party	38.7% (35.1)
it is better if the candidate does not have any endorsement or support from a political party	41.3% (48.4%)
Do not know; No answer	20.0% (16.4)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in February, 2003.

 

Q13. Do you think it is good for the ruling party and the opposition party to confront one another by supporting candidates in their own political party at the gubernatorial or mayoral election level, or you do not think so?

Do think it is good	44.2%
Do no think so	42.7%
Do not know; No answer	13.2%

 

Q14. There are the following opinions with regard to “winning the election without a vote.”
A) It would be inevitable if the personality and the achievements of the candidate are superior.
B) Regardless of personality or achievements, it would not be desirable for a local administration to approve a candidate’s victory without an opposition candidate and without a vote. Which opinion is closer to your own?

If anything, it is closer to A	43.3% (44.9)
If anything, it is closer to B	51.4% (48.8)
Do not know: No answer	5.3% (6.3)

 

Q15. Since the last nationwide local elections took place in 2003, many of Japan’s municipalities have merged and incorporated. Currently, the number of municipalities has decreased from 3,200 to about 1,800.  What are your impressions about local administration compared to the time before these municipal mergers and incorporations.

S1. Do you think that the amount of waste in municipal administration nationwide has decreased, or you do not think so?

Think so	12.9%
If anything, think so	22.8%
If anything, do not think so	23.8%
Do not think so	28.0%
Do not know; No answer	12.4%

 

S2. Do you think that services for the local citizens have been better, or you do not think so?

Think so	5.2%
If anything, think so	17.3%
If anything, do no think so	30.4%
Do not think so	33.3%
Do not know; No answer	13.8%

 

S3. Do you think that the promotion of municipal mergers and incorporations has been a good thing, or you do not think so?

Think so	16.8%
If anything, think so	27.3%
If anything, do not think so	22.0%
Do not think so	21.2%
Do not know; No answer	12.8%

 

Q16. Were there any municipal mergers or incorporations in the municipality where you currently live during the past 4 years?

Yes	39.6%
No	58.8%
Do not know; No answer	1.6%

 

Q17. Do you think that the prefectural and municipal assemblies have been fulfilling their role in checking local administrations, or you do not think so?

It is greatly playing a role of checking	3.3% (1.7)
It is somewhat playing a role of checking	27.3% (23.2)
It is not playing a role of checking very much	39.9% (49.8)
It is not playing a role of checking at all	16.7% (14.5)
Do not know; No answer	12.8% (10.9)

Figures in parentheses are results from polls conducted in July, 1997.

 

Q18. Do you think that, as a whole, the number of prefectural and municipal assemblies is too many, too small, or just right?

Too many	65.4%
Just right	23.6%
Too small	1.2%
Do not know; No answer	9.8%

 

Fundamental Characteristics of Survey Sample

Regional Distribution

Hokkaido, Tohoku	11.8%
Kanto	29.6%
Chubu	19.3%
Kinki	17.9%
Chugoku,Shikoku	9.7%
Kyushu	11.7%

 

City Scale

Large Metropolitan areas (Tokyo’s 23 wards and ordinance designated cities)	21.7%
Large mid-sized cities (cities with population over 300,000)	19.4%
Mid-sized cities (cities with population over 100,000)	24.4%
Small cities (cities with population under 100,000)	22.9%
Towns and villages	11.6%

The scale is based on the standards set up as of November 1, 2006

 

Gender Distribution

Male	47.3%
Female	52.7%

 

Age Distribution (in years)

20-24	5.1%
25-29	5.3%
30-34	7.6%
35-39	7.6%
40-44	7.7%
45-49	8.7%
50-54	9.5%
55-59	11.7%
60-69	20.2%
Over 70 years old	16.4%

 

Educational Background

Middle School	14.4%
High School	48.9%
College/Junior College	35.7%
No answer	1.0%

 

Occupational Background

Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing	2.4%
Business/Industry/Service	8.3%
Self-employed	1.1%
Management/Professional	5.2%
Office worker/Skill industry	18.0%
Labor/Service	21.9%
Housewife	22.5%
Domestic woman other than a housewife	5.1%
Student	2.5%
Other/unemployed/No answer	13.0%

 

Household Annual Income (in Japanese yen)

Below 2 million	11.2%
In between 2 and 4 million	20.4%
In between 4 and 6 million	21.4%
In between 6 and 8 million	15.9%
In between 8 and 10 million	5.7%
Over 10 million	6.0%
No answer	19.6%