December 2006 Nikkei Regular Telephone Interview Poll
Dates Conducted
December 22 – 24, 2006
Methodology
Nationwide poll. See below for age and gender breakdown.
Key Issues
- Support for the Abe administration
- Town meeting
- Honma Masaaki
- Consumption tax
- Party affiliation
Background
Three months after taking office, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is facing declining approval ratings stemming from several recent controversies. In an effort to promote grass-roots democracy, the prime minister’s office, starting with Prime Minister Koizumi, has held “town-meetings” around the country aimed at giving voice for those who do not normally have the chance to participate in the political process. In December it was revealed that the questions asked at these forums were often staged, and those who asked them were coached and paid in an effort to bolster support for the administration’s policies. Prime Minister Abe has vowed to pay three months of his salary as indemnity for the mistake. Another source of dropping approval ratings is the former president of the Special Committee on the Taxation System, Honma Masaaki, who resigned after being scrutinized for his acceptance of a luxury home in an upscale area of Tokyo.
Disclaimer
The Mansfield Foundation is responsible for the translation of this Nikkei Telephone poll, subject to the Mansfield Foundation Terms of Use.
Survey
Q1: Do you support or not support the Abe Cabinet? (N=947)
| Support | 51% |
| Not Support | 40% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 9% |
Q1SQ1: For those who answered “support” in Q1, what is the reason for your support? Please choose as many as apply from the following seven answers. (N=480)
| Because it is an LDP cabinet | 27% |
| Good policies | 10% |
| Good sense of international affairs | 16% |
| Leadership | 7% |
| Stability | 15% |
| Can trust members’ personalities | 48% |
| Politically clean | 23% |
| Other | 5% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 3% |
Q1SQ2: For those who answered “don’t support” in Q1, what is the reason for your lack of support? Please choose as many as apply from the following seven answers. (N=380)
| Because it is an LDP cabinet | 23% |
| Bad policies | 39% |
| Bad sense of international affairs | 13% |
| Lack of leadership | 54% |
| Instability | 33% |
| Cannot trust members’ personalities | 16% |
| Not politically clean | 5% |
| Others | 3% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 3% |
Q2: What political party do you currently support? Please choose only one. (N=947)
| Liberal Democratic Party | 39% |
| Democratic Party ofJapan | 12% |
| Komeito | 3% |
| JapanCommunist Party | 1% |
| Social Democratic Party ofJapan | 2% |
| The People’s New Party | 0% |
| The New Party ofJapan | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Do not support any party | 39% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 4% |
Q2SQ: For those who answered “don’t support any party or “can’t say/don’t know” in Q2, if you had to choose one party, which party do you feel is most preferable? Please choose only one. (N=406)
| Liberal Democratic Party | 18% |
| Democratic Party ofJapan | 20% |
| Komeito | 2% |
| JapanCommunist Party | 3% |
| Social Democratic Party ofJapan | 3% |
| The People’s New Party | 0% |
| The New Party ofJapan | 0% |
| Other | 1% |
| Do not support any party | 40% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 14% |
[Support + preferable parties (N=947)]
| Liberal Democratic Party | 47% |
| Democratic Party ofJapan | 20% |
| Komeito | 4% |
| JapanCommunist Party | 3% |
| Social Democratic Party ofJapan | 3% |
| The People’s New Party | 0% |
| The New Party ofJapan | 0% |
| Other | 1% |
| Do not support any party | 17% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 6% |
Q3: Do you support or not support the Abe Cabinet’s first three months of performance? (N=947)
| Support | 29% |
| Not support | 57% |
| Neither support or not support | 6% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 9% |
Q3SQ1: For those who answered “support” in Q3, what is the primary reason for your answer? Please choose only one of the following. (N=275)
| Efforts toward fiscal reconstruction | 13% |
| Efforts toward education reform | 30% |
| Restoration of party membership to opponents of postal privatization | 3% |
| Reconsideration of highway appropriations | 7% |
| Confronting the problems associated with “Town meetings’” staged questions | 2% |
| Elevation of the Japan Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense | 3% |
| (Abe’s) visit toChinaandSouth Korea | 22% |
| Response to North Korean nuclear test | 13% |
| Other | 1% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 5% |
Q3SQ2: For those who answered “not support” in Q3, what is the primary reason for your answer? Please choose only one of the following. (N=536)
| Efforts toward fiscal reconstruction | 15% |
| Efforts toward education reform | 18% |
| Restoration of party membership to opponents of postal privatization | 28% |
| Reconsideration of highway appropriations | 9% |
| Confronting the problems associated with “Town meetings’ staged questions” | 11% |
| Elevation of the Japan Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense | 3% |
| (Abe’s) visit toChinaandSouth Korea | 2% |
| Response to North Korean nuclear test | 8% |
| Other | 2% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 4% |
Q4: In regards to next year’s budget organization and tax revision, how do you rate Abe’s Cabinet compared to Koizumi’s cabinet? Please choose only one of the following. (N=947)
| Positively | 7% |
| Negatively | 30% |
| Hasn’t changed | 52% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 11% |
Q5: The leadership of the LDP recognized the readmission of opposition leaders to postal privatization after last year’s Lower House election. How do you feel about that? Please choose only one of the following.
| Agree | 23% |
| Disagree | 62% |
| Can’t say/Don’t know | 15% |
Q6: Prime Minister Abe has taken responsibility for the town meetings’ staged questions and has indicated that he will give back the approximately 1 million yen value of three months of his salary as prime minister. Do you believe that the prime minister’s actions are appropriate or inappropriate? Please choose only one of the following. (N=947)
| Appropriate | 46% |
| Inappropriate | 41% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 13% |
Q7: The government and the LDP have decided to discuss the issue of raising the consumption tax rate following fall of next year. How do you feel about the issue of raising the consumption tax rate? Please choose only one of the following. (N=947)
| Because of the fiscal reforms it is unavoidable | 13% |
| If it puts restrictions on funding for annuities it is unavoidable | 35% |
| Tax rates should maintain at current levels | 30% |
| The consumption tax should be repealed | 11% |
| Other | 1% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 10% |
Q8: How do you think the economy will be next year? Please choose only one of the following. (N=947)
| It looks like it will improve | 9% |
| It won’t change | 64% |
| It looks like it will get worse | 17% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 10% |
Q9: What party, or candidate’s party, do you want to vote for in next summer’s Upper House election? Please choose one of the following. (N=947)
| Liberal Democratic Party | 35% |
| Democratic Party | 21% |
| Komeito | 4% |
| JapanCommunist Party | 2% |
| Social Democratic Party ofJapan | 2% |
| The People’s New Party | 1% |
| The New Party ofJapan | 0% |
| Other | 2% |
| Independent | 7% |
| Not yet decided | 10% |
| Will not vote | 1% |
| Will cast a blank ballot | 0% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 16% |
Q10: The president of the Select Committee on the Taxation System, Honda Masaaki, resigned after inappropriately moving into an official residence. What do you think about this? Please choose only one of the following. (N=947)
| It is only natural | 64% |
| There was no need to resign | 6% |
| Can’t say either way | 19% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 11% |
F1: Gender (judged by interviewers, N=947)
| Male | 44% |
| Female | 56% |
| Unknown | 0% |
F2: Age (N=947)
| 20s | 8% |
| 30s | 19% |
| 40s | 20% |
| 50s | 18% |
| 60s | 19% |
| 70s | 14% |
| Refused to answer | 2% |
F3: What is your occupation? Please choose one from the following. (N=947)
| Agriculture, forestry, fishing | 2% |
| Employed (corporate employee, bureaucrat, teacher, etc.) | 47% |
| Self-employed (business, engineer), freelance (including family business) | 12% |
| Housewife (without any outside job) | 20% |
| Student | 1% |
| Unemployed | 15% |
| Refused to answer | 2% |