December 2005 Nikkei Regular Telephone Opinion Poll
Dates Conducted
December 23 – 25, 2005
Date Released
December 27, 2005 (Nikkei Shimbun)
Methodology
The Nikkei Shimbun regularly conducts public opinion polls on attitudes toward the government and domestic policy issues. The telephone poll surveyed 904 males and females over the age of 20 throughout Japan.
Key Issues
- Support for Prime Minister Koizumi
- Post-Koizumi leadership
- Feelings of trust toward the United States, China, South Korea and Russia
- Support for Self-Defense Forces in Iraq
Background
This survey was conducted amid heightened domestic political maneuvering in Tokyo, as rival politicians positioned themselves to succeed Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at the end of his term. Koizumi encouraged this competition, in part, by filling his fifth Cabinet with several potential contenders for the premiership. In mid-December, Koizumi openly encouraged Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe to run for prime minister, ending speculation about his most likely successor. News in Japan at this time also focused on the ongoing construction scandal. In November, reports surfaced that an architect had falsified data on numerous high-rise buildings throughout Japan that proved to be below current standards of earthquake resistance. The scandal raised anxiety about public safety in the earthquake-prone nation and the government’s role in enforcing building standards. The poll also looks at Japanese levels of trust toward neighboring nations, as historical disagreements and other strains in Japan’s diplomatic relations with mainland Asia continued to flare up.
Disclaimer
The Mansfield Foundation is responsible for the translation of this Nikkei Shimbun poll, subject to the Mansfield Foundation Terms of Use.
Survey
Q1. Do you support the Koizumi Cabinet or not? (N=904)
| Support | 59% |
| Don’t support | 34% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 7% |
Q1SQ1. For those who answered “support” in Q1, what is the reason for your support? Please choose as many as apply from the following seven answers. (N=529)
| Because it is an LDP cabinet | 15% |
| Good policies | 14% |
| Good sense of international affairs | 10% |
| Leadership | 53% |
| Stability | 14% |
| Can trust members’ personalities | 24% |
| Clean | 14% |
| Others | 5% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 5% |
Q1SQ2. For those who answered “don’t support” in Q1, what is the reason for your non-support? Please choose as many as apply from the following seven answers. (N=310)
| Because it is an LDP cabinet | 23% |
| Bad policies | 42% |
| Bad sense of international affairs | 36% |
| Lack of leadership | 12% |
| Instability | 20% |
| Cannot trust members’ personalities | 28% |
| Not clean | 3% |
| Others | 5% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 5% |
Q2. What political party do you currently support? Please choose only one. (N=904)
| Liberal Democratic Party | 37% |
| Democratic Party of Japan | 15% |
| New Komeito | 3% |
| Japanese Communist Party | 3% |
| Social Democratic Party | 1% |
| The People’s New Party | 0% |
| New Party Nippon | 0% |
| Others | 0% |
| Don’t support any party | 37% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 3% |
Q2SQ. For those who answered “don’t support any party” or “can’t say/don’t know” in Q2, if you have to choose one party, which party do you feel is most preferable? Please choose only one. (N=363)
| Liberal Democratic Party | 18% |
| Democratic Party of Japan | 16% |
| New Komeito | 3% |
| Japanese Communist Party | 5% |
| Social Democratic Party | 2% |
| The People’s New Party | 0% |
| New Party Nippon | 0% |
| Others | 1% |
| Don’t support any party | 44% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 12% |
[Support + preferable parties (N=904)]
| Liberal Democratic Party | 44% |
| Democratic Party of Japan | 22% |
| New Komeito | 4% |
| Japanese Communist Party | 5% |
| Social Democratic Party | 2% |
| The People’s New Party | 0% |
| New Party Nippon | 0% |
| Others | 0% |
| Don’t support any party | 18% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 5% |
Q3. What policy issues do you want the Koizumi Cabinet to prioritize? Please choose as many as apply from the following 14 answers. (N=904)
| Economy | 29% |
| Fiscal reform | 20% |
| Tax reform | 25% |
| Administrative reform/deregulation | 6% |
| Diplomacy/national security issues | 20% |
| Social security issues including pension and welfare | 55% |
| Employment | 22% |
| Education | 23% |
| Reforms in political system | 10% |
| So called “Sanmi ittai” or triple reform of central and local government taxing systems | 15% |
| Local economy revitalization | 16% |
| Constitutional issues | 9% |
| Environmental issues | 14% |
| Safety/crime control | 22% |
| Others | 1% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 11% |
Q4. What do you think will happen to the Japanese economy next year? Please choose one of the following three answers. (N=904)
| Will improve | 20% |
| Will not change so much | 61% |
| Will deteriorate | 10% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 10% |
Q5. How do you evaluate the reforms on which Prime Minister Koizumi worked this year, including the postal privatization, consolidation of government-run financial institutions, and personnel cost reduction in the central bureaucracy? Please choose one of the following four answers. (N=904)
| Highly approve | 12% |
| Approve to some extent | 55% |
| Hardly approve | 18% |
| Do not approve at all | 4% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 11% |
Q6. The discussion about raising the consumption tax rate is becoming vigorous within the government and ruling parties. What do you think about the relationship between social security and the tax burden? (N=904)
| Raising the tax rate is inevitable to maintain the level of social security | 33% |
| Should cut social security to some extent and restrain the tax increase | 34% |
| Should avoid the tax increase even if social security is drastically cut | 14% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 19% |
Q7. Prime Minister Koizumi’s tenure as LDP president will end next September. Who do you think is appropriate as the next prime minister? Please choose only one of the following. (N=904)
| Taro Aso | 3% |
| Shinzo Abe | 43% |
| Heizo Takenaka | 5% |
| Sadakazu Tanigaki | 1% |
| Yasuo Fukuda | 7% |
| Ichiro Ozawa | 5% |
| Naoto Kan | 3% |
| Seiji Maehara | 3% |
| Others | 3% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 26% |
Q8. Prime Minister Koizumi has suggested the possibility of cooperation with the Democratic Party of Japan in the context of Constitutional revision, and so forth. What framework of administration do you think would be desirable? Please choose one from the following five answers. (N=904)
| Continuation of LDP-Komeito coalition administration | 25% |
| LDP single-party administration | 14% |
| LDP-DPJ large coalition administration | 24% |
| DPJ single-party administration | 6% |
| Non-LDP coalition administration centered around DPJ | 10% |
| Others | 2% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 19% |
Q9. The Japanese government extended the period of the Self-Defense Force dispatch to Iraq for reconstruction operations by one year (to the end of December 2006). What do you think about the timing of the withdrawal? Please choose one of the following three answers. (N=904)
| Should withdraw immediately | 28% |
| Should withdraw during the first half of 2006 along with British troops and others | 46% |
| Should continue activities until the U.S.withdraws its troops | 11% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 14% |
Q10 A. About the United States, please choose between “Can trust” and “Cannot trust.” (N=904)
| Can trust | 48% |
| Cannot trust | 35% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 16% |
Q10 B. About China, please choose between “Can trust” and “Cannot trust.” (N=904)
| Can trust | 14% |
| Cannot trust | 69% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 17% |
Q10 C. About South Korea, please choose between “Can trust” and “Cannot trust.” (N=904)
| Can trust | 33% |
| Cannot trust | 50% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 17% |
Q10 D. About Russia, please choose between “Can trust” and “Cannot trust.” (N=904)
| Can trust | 17% |
| Cannot trust | 61% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 21% |
Q11. The scandal involving falsified data on earthquake-resistant buildings is becoming a serious social issue. What do you think would be most effective in preventing this problem in the future? Please choose one from the following three answers. (N=904)
| Toughen penalties against architects and real estate businesses that do not follow building codes | 21% |
| Strengthen the governmental supervision on private architecture inspection entities | 32% |
| Architecture approval should be handled entirely by public entities | 32% |
| Can’t say/don’t know | 16% |
F1. Gender (judged by interviewers, N=904)
| Male | 43% |
| Female | 57% |
| Unknown | 0% |
F2. Age (N=904, Average: 51.6)
| 20s | 8% |
| 30s | 18% |
| 40s | 19% |
| 50s | 21% |
| 60s | 15% |
| Over 70 | 16% |
| Refuse to answer | 2% |
F3. What is your occupation? Please choose one from the following. (N=904)
| Agriculture, forestry, fishery | 4% |
| Employed (corporate employee, bureaucrat, teacher, etc.) | 44% |
| Self-employed (business, engineer), freelance (including family business) | 13% |
| Housewife (without any outside job) | 22% |
| Student | 2% |
| Unemployed | 15% |
| Refuse to answer | 2% |
[Note: Figures appear as originally published by the Nikkei Shimbun.]