Asahi Shimbun October 2008 Special Opinion Poll (Third in a Series Before the House of Representatives Election) (08-29)

Key Issues
  • Support for the Aso Cabinet
  • Upcoming general election for the House of Representatives
  • Prime Minister Aso vs. DPJ President Ozawa
  • Prime Minister Aso’s economic policies and response to the financial crisis
Dates Conducted

October 25 and 26, 2008

Date Released

November 28, 2008 (Morning Edition of the Asahi Shimbun)

Methodology

The poll was conducted by telephone on October 25 and 26 with voters from across Japan , whose telephone numbers were selected by a computer at random.  Subjects were selected using a three-stage random sampling method (the Asahi RDD).  The total number of those polled was 1036, with a 57% response rate for the survey.  Where there are three columns of numbers reflecting responses, the first row represents results from the first survey on October 4-5, the second row represents results from the second survey on October 11-12, and the third row represents results from the third survey on October 25-26.

Survey

Q1.  The following question concerns current politics.  Do you support the Aso Cabinet, or not?

Support 41% 42% 41%
Do not support 42% 38% 38%

Q2.  Which political party do you currently support?

Liberal Democratic Party 32% 30% 32%
Democratic Party ofJapan 23% 22% 19%
Komeito 4% 4% 4%
JapanCommunist Party 2% 2% 2%
Social Democratic Party 1% 1% 1%
The People’s New Party 0% 0% 0%
Reform Club 0% 0% 0%
The New Party ofJapan 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0%
Do not support any party 31% 34% 35%
Can not say; Do not know 7% 7% 7%

Q3.  A general election will be held for the House of Representatives soon.  To what extent are you interested in this election?  Please select one from the following four choices:

Very interested 35% 38% 36%
Somewhat interested 44% 39% 43%
Not very interested 17% 16% 17%
Not at all interested 3% 6% 4%

Q4.  If the general election were being held today, which party would you vote for in your proportional-representation district?  Please answer with the party’s name.

Liberal Democratic Party 33% 32% 33%
Democratic Party ofJapan 34% 32% 30%
Komeito 4% 5% 4%
JapanCommunist Party 3% 4% 2%
Social Democratic Party 1% 1% 1%
The People’s New Party 0% 0% 0%
Reform Club 0% 0% 0%
The New Party ofJapan 0% 0% 0%
Other 1% 0% 1%
Can not say; Do not know 24% 26% 29%

Q5.  Next, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your small electoral district?  Please answer with the party’s name.

Liberal Democratic Party 31% 30% 31%
Democratic Party ofJapan 30% 29% 26%
Komeito 3% 4% 2%
JapanCommunist Party 3% 3% 2%
Social Democratic Party 1% 0% 1%
The People’s New Party 0% 0% 0%
Reform Club 0% 0% 0%
The New Party ofJapan 0% 0% 0%
Other 0% 0% 0%
Independent candidate 2% 2% 2%
Can not say; Do not know 30% 32% 36%

 

Q6. Do you think that occasional changes of administration, in which the ruling and opposition parties switch positions, would be good for Japanese politics, or not?

Administration centered on the LDP 34% 32% 33%
Administration centered on the DPJ 40% 38% 37%

 

Q7.  Comparing Prime Minister Aso and JDP President Ozawa, which do you think is more suited to be prime minister?

Mr. Aso 50% 53% 52%
Mr. Ozawa 22% 20% 20%

Q8.  Do you think that occasional changes of administration, in which the ruling and opposition parties switch positions, would be good for Japanese politics, or not?

Agree 73% 70% 73%
Disagree 19% 20% 19%

Q9.  Do you think the House of Representatives should be dissolved and elections held as quickly as possible or there is no need to rush? [Numbers in ( ) are results from a survey conducted September 2 and 3, 2008]

As quickly as possible 33% (56)
No need to rush 57% (33)

Q10.  In Japan , the effects of the world wide financial crisis can be seen in areas like falling stock prices.  To what extent are you interested in the financial crisis?  Please choose one from the following four choices:

Very interested 39%
Somewhat interested 44%
Not very interested 14%
Not at all interested 3%

Q11.  Do you positively evaluate or not Prime Minister Aso’s response to the financial crisis?

Positively evaluate 52%
Do not positively evaluate 40%

Q12.  The government and ruling parties are planning to enact a one-time, fixed-amount tax reduction on income taxes etc.  The scale of the tax reduction is believed to be two trillion yen.  Do you approve or not of this measure?

Approve 40%
Do not approve 41%

Q13.  The Democratic Party of Japan is pledging to gradually eliminate highway toll fees while the government and ruling parties have said they will look into substantially decreasing regional highway toll fees.  For the next general election, when determining which party or candidate to vote for, is the highway toll fee issue important to you or not?

Important 29%
Not important 64%

Disclaimer

The Mansfield Foundation is responsible for the translation of this Asahi Shimbun poll, subject to the Mansfield Foundation terms of use (see below).

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